NOTE: We went about this draft without factoring in any draft-day trades that might occur. We understand, and believe, that it will happen, but we cannot predict who will be trading and at what price (which draft picks will go to which teams). Thus, we made these picks with the assumption that each team will stay in its pre-determined spot, and select players with the intention of making their particular team better.
With that said, Slim and I are planning on coming out with a "Draft Day Trade Scenario" post before Saturday's draft kicks off (1:00 PM MST, ESPN), that will detail all the possible trades that could occur, and thus the changes in which players will go where.
So without further ado, I give you Q2's first ever Mock Draft.
1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan2007 Record (1-15) – Miami has already reached a contract agreement with Long (5 years, $57.75 million with $30 million guaranteed), so he is signed, sealed, and delivered. At this point, announcing his name on Saturday is just a formality. The Dolphins have been saying Long was their guy all along, and he’s a great pick. He has a chance to be the cornerstone left tackle for this struggling franchise for the next ten years.
2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia2007 Record (3-13) – The Rams face a tough decision between Chris Long and DT Glenn Dorsey, but should go with Long based on his ability to rush the QB. Long, the son of Hall of Fame DE Howie Long, has a special skill set rarely seen from someone right out of college, and can line up at either end position or even outside linebacker. Dorsey also has durability issues, and may not hold up well on the turf of the Edward Jones Dome. Long will use his exceptional quickness to an advantage on the surface, so he should be the choice.
3. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College2007 Record (4-12) - This should be the easiest choice in the top half of the draft. Atlanta’s only star is in jail for the next two years (QB Michael Vick), and the Falcons cannot hope to sell tickets (or win for that matter) with Joey Harrington leading them. Draft Ryan, and hope he turns into your new QB of the future.
4. Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas2007 Record (4-12) - While I think the Raiders would be better off addressing a position of more need, it’s hard to argue with selecting maybe the draft’s Most Talented Player. Owner Al Davis is famous for his love of athletic skill players, and “Run DMC” is definitely that. The backfield tandem of McFadden and last year’s #1 overall pick, QB JaMarcus Russell, would be very formidable to opposing defenses.
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU2007 Record (4-12) – With Tuesday’s trade that sent NFL sack leader Jared Allen to the Vikings, the Chiefs need to bolster their now depleted defensive line. Thus, Dorsey should be the pick. He’s a mammoth DT with great hands, and will be a multiple Pro-Bowler if he can stay healthy. There have been rumors circulating that they would reach for OG Branden Albert here, but Dorsey has too much upside to pass up. Plus, Kansas City now has Minnesota’s first round pick as well (#17), so they can look to add an o-linemen at that spot.
6. New York Jets – Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State2007 Record (4-12) - The Jets would love it if McFadden fell to them in this spot, and might even trade up to get him. But if they’re forced to stay here, and McFadden is gone, they should take Gholston, a great pass rushing threat in the style of Shawne Merriman. Gholston will bolster a Jets D that ranked near the bottom last season, and should provide an immediate impact.
7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco)2007 Record (16-0)
- Slim: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
This is the first pick Casey and I disagree on, primarily because we disagree on the Patriots’ needs. After losing Asante Samuel and Randall Gay to free agency, New England needs a corner. McKelvin is arguably the best in the class and has steadily climbed up draft boards. OLB Keith Rivers could be the choice here as LB is also a need, but McKelvin represents better value in the top 7. - Casey: Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
New England plays a base 3-4 defense, meaning they play AT LEAST 4 linebackers on each down. Here is their current starting Linebacking corps (and age): Tedy Bruschi (34), Mike Vrabel (32), Adalius Thomas (30), and Eric Alexander (26). And that doesn’t even mention their top two reserves are 33 and 31. That would all be ok if these guys were Pro-Bowl caliber LB’s…but they’re not. New England not only needs help, but they need a franchise LB that can anchor this unit for years to come. That’s Rivers, a prototypical leader who, at 6’2”, 240 lbs, can play inside or outside, and will always be around the ball.
8. Baltimore Ravens – Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
2007 Record (5-11) – Baltimore is one team in the draft who definitely should look to trade up. With Steve McNair’s recent retirement, the Ravens are left with Kyle Boller and Troy Smith on their QB depth chart, so trying to grab Boston College’s Matt Ryan would be wise. He shouldn’t fall past Atlanta at 3, though, leaving Baltimore in a tough spot. Sedrick Ellis doesn’t represent the biggest need, but he does represent the best value. Pairing him with Haloti Ngata would give the Ravens one of the best, young defensive tackle tandems in the league.
9. Cincinnati Bengals – Branden Albert, OG/OT, Virginia
2007 Record (7-9) - Albert is flying up draft boards as a versatile O-Lineman who scouts say can play either G or T in the pros. Ideally, Cincinnati will hope that Sedrick Ellis falls to them here, but if he doesn’t, Albert would be a solid pick to bolster a suspect offensive line. Albert’s versatility is what’s making him a potential Top-10 pick.
10. New Orleans Saints
2007 Record (7-9)
- Slim: Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
The Saints’ weakness is their defense, so they will be one of the teams trying to trade up to grab one of the elite defensive tackles. They can look at CB here, but I have LB as a higher need, so Rivers makes the most sense. He is a big, strong ‘backer who is a better leader than player and will provide New Orleans with a good character guy to build their defense around. - Casey: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Corner is the most intriguing position in this draft. There are four elite guys that could all be the first CB off the board. It all depends on which one is the right fit for each individual team, but I agree with Slim that McKelvin should be rated slightly above the rest. He is the most complete corner of the four at 5'11", 190 lbs, and will also add an explosive return game to New Orleans with his 4.38 speed. No matter the team, McKelvin should be the first corner taken, and in my opinion, that will be New Orleans.
11. Buffalo Bills – Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
2007 Record (7-9) - The Bills need a WR bad to draw attention away from Lee Evans and give last year’s second round pick, QB Trent Edwards, another receiving option. Thomas is a reach, but the Bills are reportedly very high on him, and will likely take him at this spot.
12. Denver Broncos – Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
2007 Record (7-9) - The Broncos O-Line used to be a thing of beauty…maybe the most dominating unit ever in the late-90’s and early 2000’s. That is not the case anymore, and Denver needs to start injecting youth into the lineup. Clady is the perfect fit for the zone-blocking system. He has incredibly quick feet and is extremely agile for his size (6’6 ½”, 310 lbs). If they take him, Clady will be the next franchise Bronco Tackle.
13. Carolina Panthers – Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
2007 Record (7-9) – Up until Tuesday, OT was Carolina’s biggest need. Then DE Mike Rucker retired. Derrick Harvey will be an excellent complement to Julius Peppers and give the Panthers two potentially great pass rushers. Harvey is a huge DE (6’5”) with a quick first step who should be a very solid rush end at the next level.
14. Chicago Bears – Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
2007 Record (7-9) – The Bears’ biggest need is OT, and Chris Williams is the best on the board. He has good size (6’6”, 315 lbs.) and adequate mobility. Running back is an option, but I don’t think the team is ready to give up on Cedric Benson just yet. Williams should make Benson’s life easier, and, if not, then RB should be addressed next offseason.
15. Detroit Lions – Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
2007 Record (8-8) – The Lions have been in love with Mendenhall since he announced he was entering the draft, so he will no doubt be the pick here. With last season’s offensive coordinator Mike Martz leaving for San Francisco, the Lions will now go back to a more run-oriented offense. Mendenhall was the only player on Illinois’ team last season that looked like he belonged on the same field as USC during the Rose Bowl. He can be a workhorse-type back and should be able to carry the load for a franchise that has struggled drafting offensive players in the first round in the past.
16. Arizona Cardinals
2007 Record (8-8)
- Slim: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
Arizona’s offense is set, and their biggest need on defense is in the secondary. Everything I’ve read suggests Rodgers-Cromartie is their guy. He’s the cousin of San Diego CB Antonio Cromartie, which can’t be a bad thing. Simply put, Rodgers-Cromartie is a playmaker and instantly would improve Arizona’s secondary. - Casey: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Slim and I agree that the Cardinals with take a CB here…we just disagree on which one it will be. Most draft analysts have Jenkins and Rodgers-Cromartie neck and neck when it comes to talent, so this may come down to the best "system" fit. In my opinion, the Cardinals need a leader in the secondary at corner, a guy that plays with a mean streak and can play bump, zone, and man-to-man coverage. That's Jenkins, the most physical of the four corners. Jenkins has great bulk for his 5'11" frame, and can turn and run with receivers with his 4.38 speed. Jenkins is the more well-rounded of the two, so he should be the pick.
17. Kansas City Chiefs (from Minnesota) – Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
2007 Record (4-12) – Before last season, Kansas City was *THE* quintessential rushing team in the league over the last 5 years. It all started with Priest Holmes, and never even skipped a beat when Holmes got hurt, and Larry Johnson stepped in. Not to take anything away from those backs, but neither would have the numbers they do if it weren’t for Kansas City’s O-line. Case in Point: Last year, when Johnson averaged only 3.5 yards per carry over the 1st half of the season before getting hurt. With Brodie Croyle still finding his legs as the team’s new QB, the Chiefs need to rebuild the line to become one of the top rushing teams once again. Otah is a big, strong drive-blocker and will be a perfect complement to LT Damian McIntosh on the right side.
18. Houston Texans – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
2007 Record (8-8) – CB is a bigger need. No denying it. But Houston is better on defense than it is on offense, and in our mind, needs to improve that side of the ball. Stewart is an undersized, but incredibly strong and shifty back who can be a star in this league. He has a great initial burst to get to the second level, and enough quickness to outrun the secondary. His only knock is durability, as he’s been slightly injured at most points during his college career. But Houston should take him to round out a budding offense that could have them challenge for the playoffs this year.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
2007 Record (8-8) – The Eagles need a WR more than any other position. Some will argue that with CB Lito Sheppard asking to be traded, CB is just as big of a need, and thus one of the top four CB’s should go here (best value). But the Eagles spent big money to bring in CB Asante Samuel, maybe the league’s best corner, in the offseason, so they should address a weak WR corps here. Sweed is a reach, but he is the most complete WR with the best chance to develop into a consistent #1 in the league.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
2007 Record (9-7) – The Bucs are in the same boat as Philly, in that CB and WR are the two biggest needs. However, the Bucs still have Joey Galloway, who despite being 34, still is a top 15 receiver, and Michael Clayton, who has the potential to regain his 1200-yd. rookie season form. Thus, it makes more sense to a CB here. On Slim’s board, he has Talib and Mike Jenkins still available, where I have Talib and Rodgers-Cromartie. We both think Talib will be the pick here however, since he is the most athletic of the top four, and has the best chance to score on defense. The Bucs are known for their aggressive D, so they should take the ultra-aggressive Talib, who loves to go for the big play.
21. Washington Redskins – Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
2007 Record (9-7) – Washington also is in need of a big time WR, but we think Thomas and Sweed, the two most talented guys, will be gone at this point, so they can’t get good enough value. Thus, they should addres another big need at Defensive End. At 6’4 ¼” and 276 lbs, Merling has a great combination of size and strength to go along with his 4.7 speed. He is not spectacular at any one aspect as a DE, but is one of the most well-rounded ends in the draft, and would be very good value here.
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) – Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
2007 Record (13-3) – This pick is the worst kept secret in the draft. Dallas has targeted Felix Jones from the day the junior announced he was entering the draft. Marion Barber III showed he was the best big back in the league last year, and the ultra-quick Jones would be the perfect change-of-pace complement. A no-brainer pick here.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
2007 Record (10-6) – The Steelers biggest need is a DE for their 3-4 scheme, and while Balmer played DT in college and is technically more suited to stay there in the pros, he could actually be a solid DE in a 3-4 defense. He has a great initial burst off the line, and can overwhelm guards and tackles with his size and strength from the position (6’4 ½”, 308 lbs).
24. Tennessee Titans – DeSean Jackson, WR, California
2007 Record (10-6) – Tennessee’s biggest needs are WR and now CB, after Wednesday’s trade that sent suspended CB Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones to Dallas. However, the Titans fared fine last season without Jones, so I think adding another weapon for Vince Young is the key. While Young has never been the most accurate thrower, he has a cannon for an arm, and would love to be able to use it. Jackson is a game-changer when he gets the ball in his hands. He is maybe the quickest player in this year’s draft, and would give Tennessee the deep-threat they lack…not to mention fill in for Pacman as a return man, a position he will make the Pro-Bowl from.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
2007 Record (10-6) – In a perfect world, Kentwan Balmer would fall to the Seahawks here. However, the NFL Draft is far from perfect, so with Balmer gone, Seattle will be left to address their most pressing need. The Hawks need pass catchers, both from the WR and TE spot. However, with the development of the TE as an offensive weapon over the past few season (Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, etc.), Keller is the best value here. At 6’2”, 242 lbs, Keller runs a 4.5 40-yard dash, and has unbelievable hands. He will be un-coverable by any NFL linebacker, and will be a huge weapon for Matt Hasslebeck.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars – Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
2007 Record (11-5) – Jacksonville’s biggest need is along the defensive front, which is why there are many rumors floating around that have Miami DE Jason Taylor heading up the road to the Jags next season. But if that doesn’t happen, they should look to add the top DE still available, which would be Jackson. “Lo-Jack” had the benefit of lining up against All-American tackle Sam Baker in practice and next to Top 10 pick Sedrick Ellis on the D-Line for four years. He’s seen elite competition, and is extremely prepared for the next level.
27. San Diego Chargers
2007 Record (11-5)
- Slim: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
The Chargers need a right tackle to complement Pro-Bowler Marcus McNeil on the left side, and Cherilus is a perfect fit here. He has a massive frame (6’6 ½”, 314 lbs), and has enormous arms and hands. Thus, he has a great reach and can push around most defensive linemen. He even has a frame to get bigger, which would make him a steal this late. - Casey: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
In my scenario, Rodgers-Cromartie is the last of the top four corners still on the board, and the Chargers would be ecstatic if he fell to them. Cromartie ran a 4.33 40-yard dash, and is one of th quickest players in the draft. He has decent size (5’10 ½”) for his speed, and has good ball skills. Thus, he is always a factor to make the big play. Not to mention that he is the cousin of San Diego’ Pro-Bowl CB Antonio Cromartie, who led the league in INT’s last year. That would be too good of a secondary combination to pass up.
28. Dallas Cowboys – Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
2007 Record (13-3) – After getting Pacman from Tennessee on Wednesday, and with Commissioner Roger Goddell likely reinstating him before training camp, Dallas no longer needs a corner to play across from Terence Newman. Thus, receiver becomes their top need, as Terry Glenn is getting old and is to injury prone to count on as a viable complement to T.O. Kelly and James Hardy are the best WR’s left, but Kelly, the 6’4”, 225 lb. WR out of Oklahoma, is definitely the more athletic and gifted of the two, so he should be the pick.
29. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis)
2007 Record (5-11)
- Slim: James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Darrell Jackson was not the answer at WR for San Francisco last season, and is now gone. The Niners are now left with a WR core of Arnaz Battle, Ashley Lelie, Bryant Johnson, and Isaac Bruce. Not exactly a fearsome foursome. At 6’6”, Hardy is a huge wideout from Indiana who runs well (4.5) for his size. He would give QB Alex Smith another big target, in addition to last year’s 1st Round choice, TE Vernon Davis, and might finally get this offense rolling. - Casey: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
The 49ers offensive woes stem from one simple problem: they can’t protect QB Alex Smith. In 6+ games last season, Smith was sacked 17 times, including one that knocked him out for the rest of the season. RT Joe Staley is a solid player, but they would love to get Cherilus here so that they could move Staley to the left (Smith’s blind side) and slide Cherlius in on the right. Cherilus plays with a mean streak, and would form a solid anchor-tandem with Staley. The Niners might then finally score some points.
30. Green Bay Packers
2007 Record (13-3)
- Slim: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Green Bay’s dream scenario is if one of the top four CB’s falls to them at this spot. And if they had their choice, they would probably like it to be Jenkins above all else. As Casey said earlier, Jenkins is the toughest corner in this class, and would fit very well into the Packers press-coverage scheme. He also ran a sub 4.4 40-yard dash, and has excelled in his limited opportunities in the return game, a position he would no doubt improve for the Pack. - Casey: Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Since none of the ‘Big 4’ are left at this spot, Green Bay will settle for Flowers, a strong, tough corner who would fall in line perfectly behind Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Woodson and Harris make their living in press coverage, bumping and jamming receivers off the line of scrimmage all day. However, they are 31 and 33 years old, respectively, and the Packers need an heir apparent. Flowers is the same type of player, and will transition beautifully.
31. New England Patriots – Pick Forfeited
2007 Record (16-0) – The Patriots lost the 31st overall pick as part of the penalty handed down for illegally videotaping Jets coaches from their sideline in Week 1.
32. New York Giants – Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State
2007 Record (10-6) – The Giants lost FS Gibril Wilson to free agency this offseason, and thus need to find his replacement. S Kenny Phillips (Miami) and Johnson have flip-flopped at this spot for the last two months, but is looks like New York is favoring Johnson as we approach Saturday’s big day. Johnson is a very strong safety. In fact, his 27 reps on the 225-lb. bench press at the combine was the most by any DB. He is not the most athletic, but has adequate speed at 4.55, and good size at 6’0”, 200 lbs to be a solid starter in the league.
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