State B Preview - Girls

Once again, the North looks like the region to beat in the State B Girls Tournament. Malta and Fairfield are both very strong teams, and I will venture to say one of them will win this tournament. So let's discuss how this thing might shape up...

STATE B Girls @ Butte

12:30 p.m. - Malta (21-2, North #1) v. Shepherd (20-3, East #2)
2:00 p.m. - Whitehall (16-8, South #1) v. Deer Lodge (16-9, West #2)
6:30 p.m. - Missoula Loyola (19-4, West #1) v. Cascade (19-4, South #2)
8:00 p.m. - Columbus (19-4, East #1) v. Fairfield (22-1, North #2)

Click here for the full bracket.

1. Who's the favorite?

I've got to go with Malta on this one. The M'ettes are the defending State champs, and are coming off their biggest win of the year, a 61-60 Double OT thriller over previously unbeaten Fairfield in the Northern B Divisional Title Game. Malta absolutely rolled their Class B competition this year, giving up only 28 points per game with their very stingy and opportunistic defense.

I'm one who believes Tournament experiece is incredibly important at State, and Malta has the most out of anyone, returning almost the exact same lineup this season as their State B Champion Team last year. In fact, their first round matchup against Shepherd is a rematch of last year's State title game. However, Shepherd is a very different team (read: not as good), and Malta should handle them easily.

And that doesn't even mention the fact that Malta's two losses this season came to Class A teams in Havre and Lewistown by a combined 3 points.

2. Which non-Division champion is most likely to pull an upset?

This could be one of two teams. Obviously, Fairfield is one of the strongest teams in the field. They lost their first game of the season in their last game...a Double OT, 61-60 loss to Malta that gave them the #2 seed from the North. So the Eagles' have to be considered a favorite to pull off a 1st Round upset.

In addition to Fairfield, I think Cascade can pull off the upset. Three of their four losses this year have come to tournament teams, two to Fairfield by a combined 11 points. Now granted, this is Cascade's first ever State Tournament appearance. However, they have 3 players scoring in double digits, and only give up 37 points per game.

Cascade's first round matchup is Missoula Loyola, the #1 seed from the West. Loyola has made the tournament five straight times now, including a State title back in 2006. But I just have a feeling about Cascade.

3. Which Division champion is most likely to be upset?

I'm going with Missoula Loyola in this one. I don't think the Breakers have enough scoring to compete with Cascade. Their top two scorers, Brittney Anderson and Christina Medieros, only combine for 22 points per game.

However, the Breakers are making their 5th straight tourney appearance, which like I said above, means a lot at State. Their experiecne alone could carry them a long way in this tourney, but I think they're the weakest of the four Division Champions. So I'll go with them to be upset.

(Note: I also think Fairfield will beat Columbus, but that won't be Columbus' fault so much as a very tough draw in Fairfield.)

4, Predictions:

First Round: Malta over Shepherd, Whitehall over Deer Lodge, Cascade over Missoula Loyola, Fairfield over Columbus

Friday Loser-Out Games: Shepherd over Deer Lodge, Columbus over Missoula Loyola

Semi-Finals: Malta over Whitehall, Fairfield over Cascade

Saturday Loser-Out Games: Columbus over Whitehall, Cascade over Shepherd

Consolation: Columbus over Cascade

Championship: Fairfield over Malta