Thursday, February 28, 2008

State A Preview - Boys

Well...it seems like records are going to be thrown out the window this weekend at the State A Boys Tourney, because they sure were at last weekend's Eastern A Divisional at Metrapark, the State venue this week.

All eight of these teams can win. And this should be one of the most exciting tournaments of the "State Season." So without further ado, here we go!

STATE A Boys @ Metrapark:

12:30 p.m. - Ronan (16-5, Northwest #1) v. Butte Central (18-3, Central #2)
2:00 p.m. - Central (8-13, East #1) v. Dillon (17-3, Southwest #2)
6:30 p.m. - Browning (16-4, Central #1) v. Whitefish (13-10, Northwest #2)
8:00 p.m. - Stevensville (12-8, Southwest #1) v. Laurel (14-8, East #2)

Click here for the bracket.

1. Who's the favorite?

I'm going with Browning. The Indians are the highest scoring team in the tournament, pouring in 68 points per game. They're led by D.J. Fish (16.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg), Andrew Spotted Wolf (15.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg), and Jordan Long Time Sleeping (12.9 ppg).

In a tournament where teams are going to need to have more than one scoring option to go to in crunch time, Browning's depth is going to be very important. Since they have three guys who can legitimately put up 20 on any night, the Indians are a scary matchup.

2. Which non-division Champion is most likely to pull an upset?

I'm going with Laurel. The Locomotives fell victim to that #1 seed Eastern A Divisional jinx, losing in their 1st game (the semis) to a red-hot Central Rams squad. Laurel then won three straight elimination games, including a 4-point challenge game win over Sidney on Monday night, to get into the State Tourney for the first time in six years.

Until that loss to Central, Laurel had been 10-0 in the Eastern A. They get a Stevensville team in the 1st round who beat Dillon in the Southwest A Title game behind 29 points from Logan Creech, including 7 three's. To me, that seems more like a game where Stevi caught fire than a sign of a complete team turnaround.

Based on that, I think Laurel is a better team than Stevensville, and has regained their confidence after that Central loss. I think the Locomotives pull the upset.

3. Which Division Champion is most likely to be upset?

Have to go with Stevensville. They have a tough matchup in the 1st round against Laurel, and I just don't see Logan Creech putting up 29 again to pace Stevi to a win. Laurel is more balanced, and has just as much if not more heart and drive than any team in this tourney.

I also believe Butte Central can beat Ronan. The Maroons are making their 4th straight trip to State, and have six guys on the team with State Tournament playing experience. They are very balanced with five guys that can score 15 any time out.

Interesting to note, if you look at records, the only #1 seed with a better record than their #2 seed first round opponent is Browning (16-4) over Whitefish (13-10). So you could argue that three of the first round matchups would not be an upset if all the #2 seeds won. I don't think that's true, but it's interesting to note.

4. Predictions:

First Round: Butte Central over Ronan, Billings Central over Dillon, Browning over Whitefish, Laurel over Stevensville

Friday Loser-Out Games: Dillon over Ronan, Whitefish over Stevensville

Semi-finals: Billings Central over Butte Central (this one should be an electric atmosphere), Browning over Laurel

Saturday Loser-Out Games: Butte Central over Dillon, Laurel over Whitefish

Consolation: Butte Central over Laurel

Championship: Browning over Billings Central

State B Preview - Boys

Hey everybody! I'm here with your State B Boys preview. Slim already showed us how the Class C is going to go down (or at least what he thinks will happen), so let's set up your Boys B Tourney kicking off today.

STATE B Boys @ Belgrade:

1:00 p.m. - Fairfield (16-7, North #1) v. Forsyth (16-8, East #2)
2:30 p.m. - Three Forks (20-3, South Central #1) v. Missoula Loyola (20-4, West #2)
7:00 p.m. - Seeley-Swan (20-3, West #1) v. Manhattan Christian (13-10, South Central #2)
8:30 p.m. - Columbus (20-3, East #1) v. Shelby (19-4, North #2)

Click here for the full bracket.

1. Who's the favorite?

The beauty about the state tournament is there is no clear-cut favorite. You have four #1 seeds, including four 20-win teams, and a 19-win Shelby squad.

However, I will pick Columbus as the favorite to win this tourney for several reasons.

  1. The Cougars have great tournament experience, finishing third at state last year.
  2. They are led by a great inside-out combo in Brandon Robbins (19 pts, 9 reb) and Sean Russell (17 pts...maybe the most dangerous shooter in the tournament)
  3. They are playing their best basketball of the year, beating their 4B District opponents and Eastern B Divisional opponents by an average of 16 points per game.

2. Which non-division Champion is most likely to pull an upset?

Missoula Loyola. The only non-division Champion with 20 wins on the season, Loyola lost in the Western B Championship game to Seeley-Swan by 4 points, and then had to win a challenge game against Thompson Falls to get into State. (They beat Thompson 72-54.)

Loyola is 20-4 on the year and led by a great inside-out presence with point guard Adam Hollenback and forward Caleb DeGroot. If any of the #2 seeds are going to upset the division winners, it will by Loyola. They take on Three Forks, who is 20-3, but who also only beat 13-11 Manhattan Christian by 1 point in the Southern B Title game.

3. Which Division Champion is most likely to be upset?

Following up on the previous question, I have to say Three Forks because of their 1st round matchup. The Wolves are a solid squad, but have the toughest road of any of the top seeds in the tournament, having to take on Loyola in the 1st Round.

Jordan Overstreet and Jared Strickland lead Three Forks by averaging close to 30 combined points per game.

The other #1 seeds: Columbus, Fairfield, and Seeley-Swan, have much easier 1st round matchups, and I don't see any of them being upset. So by default, Three Forks is the choice here.

4. Predictions:

First Round: Fairfield over Forsyth, Missoula Loyola over Three Forks, Seeley-Swan over Manhattan Christian, Columbus over Shelby.

Friday Loser-Out Games: Three Forks over Forsyth, Shelby over Manhattan-Christian

Semi-Finals: Missoula Loyola over Fairfield, Columbus over Seeley-Swan

Saturday Loser-Out Games: Seeley-Swan over Three Forks, Fairfield over Shelby

Consolation: Fairfield over Seeley-Swan

Championship: Columbus over Missoula Loyola

State C Preview - Boys (Guest Blogger)

Hey everyone, Slim here. State is upon us! Here's the Class C Preview.

STATE C Boys @ Butte Civic Center:

11 a.m. - Rocky Boy (15-4, North #2) vs. Big Sandy (11-9, North #3), play-in
12:30 p.m. - Twin Bridges (21-2, West #1) vs. Wibaux (19-4, South #2)
2 p.m. - Winifred (22-0, North #1) vs. Fairview (19-4, East #2)
6:30 p.m. - Plenty Coups (21-1, South #1) vs. Shields Valley (18-4, West #2)
8 p.m. - Rocky Boy-Big Sandy winner vs. Scobey (23-5, East #1)

*This is a unique bracket since the Northern Division sends three teams. For a look at the bracket, click here.

1. Who’s the favorite?

Calling anybody a favorite in the state tournament is naïve. All of these teams deserve to be here, and any one of them can walk away the winner. You probably have to look at the one seeds to try to label a favorite, and, since Winifred is unbeaten, they are probably the choice. Winifred had their struggles in the divisional tournament with both Rocky Boy and Big Sandy, but, until somebody beats them, they have to be considered the favorite.

2. Which non-Division Champion is most likely to pull an upset?

Wibaux and Rocky Boy. Two of Rocky Boy’s four losses came against Harlem, who fell three points short of qualifying for the State “B” tournament, and a third came at the hands of Winifred. Those are quality losses if such a thing exists. Wibaux is a potential upset team based on how they play. They’re guard oriented, are aggressive defensively, and attack offensively. If they get matched up with a bigger, slow-the-tempo team, they could pull the upset.

3. Which Division Champion is most likely to be upset?

I’ll go with Twin Bridges here, based off of their match-up. I like Wibaux to pull the upset over the Falcons. Scobey is a candidate here, too, but, after playing the morning play-in game, I’m not sure Rocky Boy will have enough energy to knock off a one seed.

4. Predictions:

First Round: Rocky Boy over Big Sandy (play-in), Wibaux over Twin Bridges, Winifred over Fairview, Plenty Coups over Shields Valley, Scobey over Rocky Boy.

Friday Loser-Out Games: Twin Bridges over Big Sandy, Rocky Boy over Shields Valley, Fairview over Twin Bridges

Semi-Finals: Winifred over Wibaux, Plenty Coups over Scobey

Saturday Loser-Out Games: Rocky Boy over Wibaux, Scobey over Fairview

Consolation: Rocky Boy over Scobey

Championship: Winifred over Plenty Coups

*If the bracket goes this way, Saturday night at the Butte Civic Center will be incredible. The Rocky Boy-Scobey rematch is very intriguing, as both teams will have played a morning game this time around, and it will be Rocky Boy’s fifth game in three days. And the State Championship, wow! Plenty Coups was the consensus number one team all year long before stumbling in the district championship, after which Winifred assumed the top position. These two teams play really similar styles, except Winifred is a little more careful with the ball. The game creates incredible individual match-ups (Winifred’s Brian Foran against Plenty Coups’ Alton Smart Enemy and Winifred’s D.J. Dyer against Plenty Coups’ J.D. Blaine).

Eastern B Divisional Preview - Girls

While the boys Class A, B, and C State Tourneys get underway today, the B and C girls are just at the divisional stage. Slim already joined us with a Southern C preview, and in Class B, it's the Eastern B that concerns us most.

Eastern B Divisional – Girls @ Red Lodge – Thurs.-Sat. (Top two advance)

Here are your 1st Round Girls matchups for the Eastern B Divisional @ Red Lodge:

12:30 p.m. – Columbus (16-4, 4B #1) v. Broadus (10-10, 3B #4)
2:15 p.m. – Huntley Project (12-10, 4B #3) v. Baker (10-10, 3B #2)
6:15 p.m. – Colstrip (15-5, 3B #1) v. Red Lodge (9-12, 4B #4)
8:00 p.m. – Shepherd (18-2, 4B #2) v. Lame Deer (7-12, 3B #3)

1. Who's the favorite?

Unlike the boys side, this is a very loaded Divisional as Columbus, Shepherd, and Colstrip all could win this tournament. All three have the talent to beat anyone on any given night. Columbus is coming off a huge District win in which they played their best basketball all season.

Shepherd has the best record of all three (18-2) and is the only one of the three to have an overall winning record against the other two (1-1 v. Colstrip...2-1 v. Shepherd). However, they lost their last meeting with each team (Colstrip on the last weekend of the reg. season and Shepherd in the 4B Title game).

Colstrip's only loss in the last month was to Class A power Miles City, and the Fillies are playing very well coming into the Eastern B. But they will have to play their best ball to beat Shepherd and Columbus on a neutral court (that will without a doubt have more Columbus and Shepherd fans due to proximity).

2. Non-District Champion with best chance to pull off an upset at Divisionals?

Definitely Shepherd. It was a mild upset Saturday night when Columbus beat the Fillies in the 4B title game, let alone beat them as badly as they did. That was only Shepherd's second loss of the year, against 18 wins, including 2 earlier victories over the Lady Cougs (it's always hard to beat a team three times in a row). The Fillies have a great inside-out game with guard Whitney Baustadt and forward Jillian Stanek. That combo can be very dangerous to any team Shepherd comes up against.

3. District Champion most likely to be upset at Divisionals?

I'm gonna go with Colstrip based on the fact that their likely 2nd round opponent is Shepherd, whereas Columbus' will either be Huntley Project or Baker, two teams Columbus should easily beat.

4. State Tournament Qualifier Predictions:

I have to go with Columbus and Shepherd as the two teams most likely to move on. Columbus is playing better than anyone else, and their 1-2 punch of Hannah Counter and Megan Patterson is good enough to carry them even if the rest of the team has an off night.

As for Shepherd, I think they've got the motivation (lost in State Championship last year) and the talent to overcome their less-than-stellar play over the last two weeks. They will have to if they are going to get by Colstrip, who is playing very well and already owns a 4-point win over Shepherd in the regular season.

Southern C Divisional Preview - Girls (Guest Blogger)

Hey everyone. It's Slim once again. As the Class A, B, and C boys get their state tournaments underway today, many of the girls are only getting to their Divisionals.

In Class C, the divisional that concerns us is the Southern C, taking place in Miles City.

SOUTHERN C DIVISIONAL MATCHUPS (GIRLS) @ Miles City:

1:30 p.m. – Ekalaka (20-1, 4C #1) vs. Absarokee (12-7, 6C #2)
3 p.m. – Harlowton (17-2, 5C #1) vs. Roberts (7-12, 6C #3)
6:30 p.m. – Joliet (13-4, 6C #1) vs. Plevna (15-6, 4C #3)
8 p.m. – Wibaux (15-4, 4C #2) vs. Ryegate (7-14, 5C #2)

1. Who’s the favorite?

It’s hard to overlook Ekalaka’s 20-1 record. Harlowton looked tough during the district tournament, and Joliet has put together a nice little win streak. The favorite has to come from those three teams, and since I haven’t seen Ekalaka play, this is a tough call for me. I like Harlowton a little better than Joliet. Bailey Snelling is an incredible freshman, and they do have some upperclassman leadership. I’ll take the Lady Engineers as the favorite, with Ekalaka and Joliet following close behind.

2. Non-district champion with best chance to pull off an upset at Divisionals?

Plevna beat Joliet to open the season, but Joliet looks to be a different team now. Plevna, though, is one of the teams I can see pulling an upset or two. The other team is Wibaux. Wibaux has won all three meetings this season with Plevna, so I like Wibaux against every team in the division except for Ekalaka and Harlowton.

3. District champion most likely to be upset at Divisionals?

This has to be Joliet. They have won 13 in a row, but I don’t think this team is as strong as the other district winners—Harlowton and Ekalaka. Joliet got lucky in that they don’t have either one of the other one seeds on their side of the bracket. It’s not an upset if Harlowton or Ekalaka knocks off the other, which is going to happen in the semi-finals. I don’t think Joliet makes it to the Championship, so they’re my pick to be upset.

4. State Tournament Qualifier Predictions:

Round One: Ekalaka over Absarokee, Harlowton over Roberts, Joliet over Plevna, and Wibaux over Ryegate

Friday Loser-Out Games: Absarokee over Roberts, Plevna over Ryegate

Semi-Finals: Harlowton over Ekalaka, Wibaux over Joliet

Saturday Loser-Out Games: Ekalaka over Plevna, Joliet over Absarokee

Consolation: Ekalaka over Joliet

Championship: Harlowton over Wibaux

*Challenge: Ekalaka over Wibaux

*Harlowton and Ekalaka represent the Southern C at the State Tournament.

Review: Southern C Divisional - Boys (Guest Blogger)

Hey everybody, it's Slim again, your resident Class C Basketball expert.

This has to be disappointing for Bridger. They lost two regular season games all year and were finally able to get over the hump against Plenty Coups in the district championship. However, Plenty Coups is going to the state tournament as a one seed, and Bridger’s season came to an end.

Bridger drew a tough match-up in the semi-finals where they played Wibaux. I was really impressed with what I saw from Wibaux and can see them making some noise at the state tournament. What they lack in height and size they make up for with quickness and aggressiveness. They have two attack-minded guards in Travis Bertelsen and Jeff Bakken. Those two are fearless. They attack the rim with reckless abandon and are not easily intimidated by bigger opponents.

Ultimately, though, the Longhorns were just outmatched by Plenty Coups in the district championship. Again, Alton Smart Enemy impressed. The Warriors are just a completely different team with him on the floor. It starts on the defensive end. He provides a big interior presence that affects shooters, and he’s able to use his size to gather up defensive rebounds. He instantly gets the break started with incredible outlet passes. There was one instant in the championship game where he grabbed a defensive rebound, and, with the ball above his head, threw a two-handed outlet pass 75 feet. Their offensive sets seem to be much more organized and effective with him on the floor, as well. He gives the Warriors a low-post option when necessary, but can work out of the high-post effectively, too. In order to beat Plenty Coups, you have to be able to limit Smart Enemy’s effectiveness.

Both of these teams have a chance to make some noise at the state tournament in Butte, which begins Thursday at the Civic Center.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Review: Eastern A Divisional - Girls

Well that went *Almost* as expected. Miles City and Glendive, the clear-cut best two teams in the Eastern A, advanced to State (although the Lady Devils pulled off what I consider a mild upset over the Cowgirls in the title game).

Kalli Stanhope (Glendive guard) is the best player in this Division, no questions asked. She has a killer instinct that not many players can match, and then you put her deadly shooting into that equation...and you have a dangerous player who makes any upset possible. The Lady Devils just seem to have figured out how to beat Miles City, handing the otherwise dominant Cowgirls their only two losses of the year, both in slow-down, drag-out games in which the final scores were about 45-37.

Glendive is not the most athletic team, they are not the tallest teams, but they might be the smartest team in the field. They know how to win, and that can be just as, if not more important in big tournaments than any of that natural ability.

In the 3rd place game, Sidney beat Central by 3 points, 51-48, although Central might have had the most exciting 15 seconds of the year in the final seconds of that game to make it much closer than it should have been...

Lady Rams guard Austin Hanser came up with a steal at about half-court and fed it ahead to Kylie Medicine Horse for the easy lay-up. Then, in a play reminiscent of Larry Bird, Hanser stole the inbounds on the baseline while going out-of-bounds and immediately through it to Medicine Horse underneath to make it a 1-point game with 3 seconds to play. The Rams would end up losing the game, but the play was incredible.

And since Miles City already beat Sidney in the semis, no challenge game was needed to determine this year's Eastern A Girls State participants.

Congrats to Glendive and Miles City. Good luck!