State A Preview - Boys

Well...it seems like records are going to be thrown out the window this weekend at the State A Boys Tourney, because they sure were at last weekend's Eastern A Divisional at Metrapark, the State venue this week.

All eight of these teams can win. And this should be one of the most exciting tournaments of the "State Season." So without further ado, here we go!

STATE A Boys @ Metrapark:

12:30 p.m. - Ronan (16-5, Northwest #1) v. Butte Central (18-3, Central #2)
2:00 p.m. - Central (8-13, East #1) v. Dillon (17-3, Southwest #2)
6:30 p.m. - Browning (16-4, Central #1) v. Whitefish (13-10, Northwest #2)
8:00 p.m. - Stevensville (12-8, Southwest #1) v. Laurel (14-8, East #2)

Click here for the bracket.

1. Who's the favorite?

I'm going with Browning. The Indians are the highest scoring team in the tournament, pouring in 68 points per game. They're led by D.J. Fish (16.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg), Andrew Spotted Wolf (15.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg), and Jordan Long Time Sleeping (12.9 ppg).

In a tournament where teams are going to need to have more than one scoring option to go to in crunch time, Browning's depth is going to be very important. Since they have three guys who can legitimately put up 20 on any night, the Indians are a scary matchup.

2. Which non-division Champion is most likely to pull an upset?

I'm going with Laurel. The Locomotives fell victim to that #1 seed Eastern A Divisional jinx, losing in their 1st game (the semis) to a red-hot Central Rams squad. Laurel then won three straight elimination games, including a 4-point challenge game win over Sidney on Monday night, to get into the State Tourney for the first time in six years.

Until that loss to Central, Laurel had been 10-0 in the Eastern A. They get a Stevensville team in the 1st round who beat Dillon in the Southwest A Title game behind 29 points from Logan Creech, including 7 three's. To me, that seems more like a game where Stevi caught fire than a sign of a complete team turnaround.

Based on that, I think Laurel is a better team than Stevensville, and has regained their confidence after that Central loss. I think the Locomotives pull the upset.

3. Which Division Champion is most likely to be upset?

Have to go with Stevensville. They have a tough matchup in the 1st round against Laurel, and I just don't see Logan Creech putting up 29 again to pace Stevi to a win. Laurel is more balanced, and has just as much if not more heart and drive than any team in this tourney.

I also believe Butte Central can beat Ronan. The Maroons are making their 4th straight trip to State, and have six guys on the team with State Tournament playing experience. They are very balanced with five guys that can score 15 any time out.

Interesting to note, if you look at records, the only #1 seed with a better record than their #2 seed first round opponent is Browning (16-4) over Whitefish (13-10). So you could argue that three of the first round matchups would not be an upset if all the #2 seeds won. I don't think that's true, but it's interesting to note.

4. Predictions:

First Round: Butte Central over Ronan, Billings Central over Dillon, Browning over Whitefish, Laurel over Stevensville

Friday Loser-Out Games: Dillon over Ronan, Whitefish over Stevensville

Semi-finals: Billings Central over Butte Central (this one should be an electric atmosphere), Browning over Laurel

Saturday Loser-Out Games: Butte Central over Dillon, Laurel over Whitefish

Consolation: Butte Central over Laurel

Championship: Browning over Billings Central